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Bhutto sympathy vote may be key to February 18 polls

* Inflation, power cuts, wheat and gas shortage may hurt PML-Q’s support
* Analyst says PPP has ‘brighter’ winning chance in Punjab

MULTAN: The strength of a sympathy vote for assassinated Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) chairwoman Benazir Bhutto in Punjab is likely to determine the result of the upcoming general election on February 18.

“Certainly there’s a sympathy vote,” PPP Punjab vice chairman Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani said. Half of the country’s members of parliament would be elected from Punjab. “If there’s a free, fair and transparent election the PPP will be number one,” Gilani said at his house in Multan. Months of political turmoil and militant violence have raised worries about the stability of Pakistan.

Fear of violence has stifled election campaigning, especially after Benazir’s murder on December 27 in an attack the government blamed on militants, and is also expected to hurt turnout in the election for a National Assembly and provincial assemblies. Opposition parties have also complained of rigging in favour of Musharraf’s allies.

“She was very brave and gave Musharraf a tough time, which nobody else has dared to do. People should vote for her party,” Punjab labourer Jumma Khan said of Benazir.

Inflation, power cuts: But it is inflation, power cuts and shortages of the staple flour and natural gas that could scupper the election hopes of the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), which has been ruling under Musharraf.

Benazir’s party is expected to sweep rural areas of her home province of Sindh and split the vote in its capital, Karachi, with a pro-Musharraf party.

Brighter chance: It also looks set to make gains in Punjab, which has the country’s most independent voters, unattached to a party and free from caste or tribal voting compulsions, said political analyst and academic Rasul Bakhsh Rais. “The PPP has a much brighter chance now than it probably could have had with Benazir on the scene,” Rais said of the sympathy vote. “Punjab is key and I see some change in Punjab in their favour.”

Nawaz Sharif’s PML-Nawaz (PML-N) is also expected to do well in Punjab, particularly in urban areas, and could be the biggest there if a sympathy swing to the PPP fizzles. Sharif’s party and the PPP look likely to be in a position to establish a dominant coalition, if they want, analysts say.

But Musharraf’s allies cannot be written off. They are fielding strong candidates and have support from powerful families who command banks of votes in the countryside. Former President Farooq Leghari, standing for the PML-Q in his home district of Dera Ghazi Khan in Punjab, said his party would win although it was being hurt by rising prices and shortages, and discontent with Musharraf.

“People see Musharraf, his leading the so-called war on terror at the behest of the West, as a major factor,” said Leghari, who as president dismissed Benazir’s government in 1996 over accusations of corruption and misrule.

“There was a tremendous, huge, crest of sympathy for her but it is ebbing,” he said of Benazir. “What is going to hurt the PML-Q is more the increase in prices and so on rather than any special performance by the other parties.” reuters

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